What have we learned during the COVID crisis? People can telework (except me). When people stay home, restaurants that depend on lunch business, die. When restaurants can’t fill all their tables they die. What does this mean in general. All these businesses rent commercial space in commercial buildings. There will be a glut of commercial space starting in 2021. Empty buildings mean foreclosures. Foreclosures mean depressed values on commercial real and personal property. This means tax revenues for localities will be tight. Look for localities to get creative by raising licensing taxes and fees. Planning for these increases is difficult, because fees are random and license taxes are on gross receipts. So, businesses are advised to not book receipts until earned and establish escrow accounts for unearned money that may have to be returned to customers. For example if something has a one year money back guarantee, escrow the money until the year has passed and don’t book it as earned until guarantee period has expired.

Given that some states unemployment insurance funds were stretched to their limits during COVID, and that some states passed higher minimum wage laws (which will lead to layoffs), expect unemployment insurance premiums to rise in the coming months. Be prepared to contest claims for justified firings. Larger employers should consider hiring a UI cost control company to audit your practices. Consider retraining instead of laying off. Its very hard to move employees into a contractor status. So, look at IRS Form W-8 to see what the test looks like. So, that will not be a panacea.
2021 may not be as weird as 2020, but it will still have its shocks.